BOC Fund: The epidemic will not change the long-term stock market trend
BOC Fund expects that market sentiment may be released in a short period of time. It is inevitable that securities will be adjusted to a certain extent by the impact of the epidemic.
The Bank of China Fund believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, the state of economic fundamentals will be temporarily interrupted.
The impact of non-durable goods consumption is the most important.
In addition, after the holiday is resumed, and the World Health Organization defines the outbreak as an international public health emergency, investment and exports may also be affected by disruptions in the short term.
In fact, it is currently at a critical stage of epidemic prevention and control. Further development of the epidemic has made forecasting difficult, and uncertainty will still suppress market risk appetite.
Thirdly, from the perspective of liquidity, unlike the SARS outbreak in 2003, exchanges became an important source of funds for A shares. The outbreak of concentrated outbreaks in China may cause a partial increase in the short term and reduce the weight of A shares in its portfolio.
In addition, the recent pressure to lift the ban and the high fund positions may also amplify the impact of capital.
In contrast to the bond market, the Bank of China Fund believes that the short-term market sentiment has a high probability of driving interest rates down quickly.
At the same time, short-term economic expectations may be revised down, and expectations for loose monetary policy are further strengthened, and there is even the possibility of a short-term interest rate cut.
The allocation of funds in the bond market may also increase, further pushing down interest rates.
Therefore, in the short term, bond investment opportunities come with 深圳桑拿网 stocks.
Medium and long-term: The market may usher in a clear opportunity for rebound. Considering China ‘s strict prevention and control measures and warmer weather will inhibit the spread of the virus and other factors, the Bank of China Fund believes that although the epidemic development is uncertain in the short term, it will be in April to May.It calmed down a month ago but it is likely to be a high probability event. With the recovery of economic activity, the A-share market may usher in a clear opportunity for a rebound.
From the experience of SARS, the Bank of China Fund believes that the epidemic will only cause a short-term shock to the economy and will not change its long-term development trend.
With the turning point of the epidemic situation until it finally subsides, the market’s risk appetite will gradually be repaired.
Once the epidemic subsides, the previously suppressed demand will be compensated and the economy will return to medium and long-term fundamentals.
At the same time, considering that achieving a well-off society in an all-round way still requires a GDP growth rate of 5 this year.
Above 6%, the market can also expect a higher level of steady growth policies to constitute hedging, such as further reducing the RRR and interest rates, increasing the deficit rate and the special debt limit.
In order to stabilize the market’s future expectations, financial regulators have gradually taken actions in monetary policy, including providing 300 billion US dollars of special reloan funds for budgets to respond to important medical treatment of epidemic conditions, and domestic material production companies provide preferential interest rate credit support. In FebruaryTimely to release 1 on the 3rd.
2 trillion reverse repurchase funds to hedge the pressure to withdraw funds, while significantly reducing the reverse repurchase rate by 10BP.
In addition, after this round of adjustments, it is expected that the price-performance ratio of A-shares in the global market will still be outstanding. After the epidemic passes, the trend of richer and faster allocation of A-shares will resume.
In the bond market, in the medium and long term, its trend is still in the actual operation of the economy, especially after the economic downturn and currency easing expectations have been fully deduced, we need to pay attention to whether the expected differences will occur.
This round of adjustments or the formation of a mid-to-long term “golden pit” Even if the average price of each major A-share index fell on the first trading day of the Chinese New Year, the market generally believes that this round of adjustment may form a “golden pit” to promote betterMedium and long-term investment opportunities.
BOC Fund believes that the optional consumption and cycle sectors faced by short-term epidemic shocks are under pressure to adjust the size, while the pharmaceutical and technology sectors that are weakly related to economic expectations and benefit from loose liquidity expectations will be relatively resilient. The first transaction in the year of the ratJapan’s A-share performance also initially confirmed this.
However, once the epidemic situation shows a clear easing momentum, it is necessary to focus on the optional consumption and the rebound opportunity of the cycle sector under pressure to break through in the early stage.
In addition, the media, new energy vehicles and other sectors are currently estimated to be relatively reasonable. The future boom is expected to continue to be repaired, and investors can also pay due attention.
In terms of bond investment, the Bank of China Fund suggests that in the short term, it can pay attention to the liquidity of bonds while increasing the duration, maintain an appropriate level of leverage, and be cautious about credit bonds.
At the same time, investors need to pay close attention to the changes in the epidemic population, pay attention to the risk of interest rate fluctuations and liquidity risks caused by repeated market sentiment. There may be a rebound risk after the interest rate has fallen rapidly.
In the medium and long-term allocation strategy, the overall duration and leverage strategy can be relatively active. The credit strategy is mainly medium and high grade. It is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of 3-5 year high grade credit bonds.
Funders who continue to reduce limited space believe that the market may turn into shocks in the short term after rebounding in the early morning, and continue to reduce the limited space. The market outlook is focused on the situation of epidemic prevention and control.
A public fund strategy analyst said that it is unlikely that the index will continue to fall sharply. It will turn into a short-term shock. A systematic rebound still needs to pay attention to epidemic prevention and control.
The chief economist and director of macro strategy research of Great Wall Fund advised Weida to keep investors calm on the impact of the epidemic, and not to lighten up easily in the shock caused by short-term panic.
But in the short term, there is not much room for the Shanghai Index to rebound.
Boshi Macro said that the short-term A-share market may still change from the epidemic situation, and the market is generally concerned and waiting for the turning point of the epidemic situation.
From a risk perspective, considering the existing adjustment range, if the epidemic situation does not exceed the expected negative development, the A-share market’s decline space has been separated and limited, and it will gradually come out of panic soon.
Kaifeng Investment believes that A-shares have a high probability of repeating the differentiation trend of Hong Kong and Chinese stocks. It is expected that the impact of the change in the epidemic will be far less than in 2003. Some stocks that have been wrongly killed due to panic will usher in a medium-termGood time to open a warehouse.
According to Baoyin Investment, the current market estimation level is still relatively low, and there is limited room for downward adjustment. It is difficult to shake the medium and long-term trend, and short-term shocks will only delay the recovery time of A shares.
Continue to be optimistic about technology stocks in the later period